ECONOMIC IMPACT TOOL

The interface has two tabs – one for model inputs and one for model outputs. The output tab is dynamically linked to the input tab – adjust the model inputs and the outputs will update automatically. Use in landscape mode if on mobile device for a more effective interface.

INPUT TAB

Firstly specify the type of economic impact you want to simulate.

• Select from GROUP – choose either INDUSTRY or final DEMAND categories (e.g. households, exports).
• Next choose the INPUT TYPE. If you have chosen industry as the group, you can select an impact in £m, a number of Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs, or a % shock. If you have chosen a demand category you can only specify this in £m or % terms.
• Next select the CATEGORY – if you chose industries, select one of the 21 industry categories; if you chose demand, select one of the 7 categories of final demand.
• Finally specify the INPUT VALUE. You can enter any positive or negative numeric value, including decimals.

Click ADD to add your selection to the current list of model inputs, you will see the selection added to the table of CURRENT INPUTS. Once added, the output tab will update your results.

You can add multiple entries to the current input table. These will be treated additively.

The model is calibrated for the year 2022, hence £m input values must first be deflated to 2022 prices. If you enter a value in 2025 prices, GVA effects will be shown in 2025 prices, but FTE effects will tend to be overestimated and will need to be deflated accordingly. Entering any % value gives estimates of GVA valued at 2022 prices.

If you CLEAR the inputs, the current inputs table will be emptied.

You can download your input profile as a .csv file.

OUTPUT TAB

At the top of the tab the economy wide effects for GVA, FTEs and Growth are shown.

These are broken down for each industry in the INDUSTRY EFFECTS table.

Select the METRIC , either GVA (default), FTE or GROWTH.

The effects are split as follows:

• Initial Effect – these are the industries directly affected by the changes you specified.
• Direct Suppliers – these are the suppliers of the industries affected in the initial phase
• Indirect Suppliers – these are suppliers further down the supply chain
• Induced Effects – these are effects generated by workers receiving additional incomes and spending them within the economy

Growth effects show % changes in each industry and the economy wide growth effect. The effects apply equally to GVA and FTE as the standard Leontief IO model assumes labour productivity is fixed.

The table can be downloaded as a .csv file by clicking the download button.

An Input-Output (IO) model is a snapshot of buying and selling that takes place in an economy over the course of a year. It maps how different industries supply goods and services to each other, and how they meet the final demands of households, government, exports, and investment.

Examples of these transactions might include:

• intermediate production – buying and selling between industries, e.g. car manufacturers buying steel;
• final demand – the purchase of finished goods and services by households or government, or that are sold for export;
• distribution to primary inputs – payments to labour and capital — such as wages and salaries, and profits, which reflect how industries draw on the economy’s resources

Under certain assumptions, this map can be used to trace the effects of a change in demand — for example, a 2% rise in household spending or an extra £100 million in manufacturing exports. The model shows how this shock ripples and flows through the economy, affecting:

• the sector(s) directly impacted,
• their direct suppliers,
• other industries indirectly linked in the supply chain, and
• sectors influenced by changes in household income and spending.

These effects are typically measured in terms of:

• Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of the value created by each industry
• Employment – typically estimated through full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs

However, other types of impact can also be modelled — such as environmental emissions, energy use, or demand for particular occupations.

For further reference on input-output modelling, see

Miller, R and Blair, P (2009) Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Cambridge University Press

The NHE table for Great Britain is estimated using the following sources:

• ONS UK Industry-by industry input output table for 2022
• ONS balanced method GVA data for 2022
• ONS regional accounts data on taxation, social contribution etc.
• ONS BRES employment data for 2022
• Self employment data from the LFS
• Hours worked by industry from LFS
• Data regarding Northern Ireland’s share of UK employment and GVA (LFS, ONS GVA accounts), and regional trade (NI Department for Economy)

Please note the following regarding estimation methodology:

• Whilst trade between GB and Northern Ireland is accounted for in the GB model specification, ‘Exports to Northern Ireland’ is not explicitly shown as a selectable demand vector. Regional analyses are available as part of a subscription service. However, the underlying modelling assumption for trade between NI/GB is centred around Northern Ireland’s output share of the UK market in each industry (formed and applied at the 105 industry level), adjusted for the tradability of each industry’s output (e.g. manufactures traded more than services). For broad context, imports of goods and services by GB from NI within the model are estimated in 2022 at around £11.8bn, £10.1bn of which was goods, £1.7bn services. These values are consistent with the figures estimated by the NI Department for Economy.
• FTE employment includes employees in employment, self-employment and MoD military staff.
• Headcount values are converted to FTE by applying estimates of FT / PT / SE working hours in each industry derived from the Labour Force Survey.
• The income row of the national input-output table is augmented to include an estimate of self employment income, hence the induced model closure includes compensation of both employees in employment and the self employed.
• The household spending vector of the national input-output model is augmented to incorporate income taxation, and social contributions in the income-expenditure model closure. These are treated as leakages. Closure of the model only extends to the household sector.